Robust Economy Gives President Obama The Upper Hand In SOTU

Promising really cool social programs is an easy panacea for civil unrest- especially when world economies collapse, because it only increases the deficit, and deficits don't matter anymore. One might argue that even national debt is a necessary evil within a global economy, but addressing national debt is a lot more important to smart politicians than insuring we operate within a balanced budget.  When economic recovery reaches a peak, our impression of deficit spending changes dramatically and thoughts extend towards social investment and away from deficit fears.

Enter tonight's State of the Union address which will establish a credible argument for the need to balance our nations income disparity deficit by implementing "hard to argue with" social investment measures that most republicans are either quietly or vocally in favor of.  These items of middle class security have always been within the presidents vision for America and within the agreeable majority of congress, but the last remaining opposition to his tax code dreams are all of the past accomplishments of the Obama era.

Plainly put, Barack Obama is a victim of his own success.  At this stage in the chess match, Obama opponents are simply risking every piece on the board while trying to keep their king from being captured. The president is not after their king since his economic ideology is in lock step with their own.  Since democrats are blocking Obama's trade plans, the TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership) will be quietly included into an address that will scream of a greater focus on the middle class family.  Trade expansion never finds uninterested GOP ears, but it will not view well on film if Obama and his new republican cohorts pretend to play nice on television.  Cuban normalization efforts are also a preparation for Obama trade dreams as well.

Obama will ultimately get everything that he wants in the end because he is dangling the cash carrot as a lure and republicans can't resist a bite.  What he will not get is the impression that he accomplished it without a fight. In other words, everybody will add stuff to the final bill/s and pretend they had no choice. Tonight's speech is nothing more then a prelude to the TPP hustle that will allow the Keystone XL pipeline to get approved and a couple of other cool social programs like free community college for middle class kids (poor kids already get Pell Grants) or a child tax credit that middle class people with kids can actually take advantage of.(poor people already have multiple child tax credits).


There has always been some false notion that American presidents can pull the strings of the world economy which is typically the key to America's economy.  Presidents can not pull any strings, but nonetheless, good economies are credited to them along with the bad ones. If Obama was indeed the cause of a sputtered recovery than he is singing Al Green tunes in the Oval office for the trend that he is enjoying now. What is the benefit of all of this?  Improved poll numbers for the president and increased power to grab the ear of the public at large.  43% of things spoken during the SOTU address get enacted into law, especially by presidents who've recaptured their moxie.

Congress might fight and kick, but there is always something to be said for the will of the people and of the power of the president to influence that will.  There is also something special about the power of the internet to take your message directly to the public and gauge their response to the details you provide.  In an unprecedented fashion, Barack Obama has basically laid his entire SOTU speech out for public consumption and republican response.  By doing so, he gets to place his winning hand on the table against a republican hand that can only beat him if it offers up a better alternative vision. The move also allows him to snuff out the republican response and prepare his counter in advance as well.

Joni Ernst (R- Iowa)

If the economy keeps blowing up- cheap gas and expanded trade says it will- the trickle down theory must show dividends or redistribution will happen by other means.  Like he did with healthcare, President Obama has stolen the tax code mechanism away from his republican opponents who typically find means of returning wealth to the American people by way of the tax code. Joni Ernst (Iowa), the republican assigned to play the impossible hand of republicans will give the response to tonight's SOTU address.  Ernst is the sacrificial lamb that has been cornered into saying that we must DO more, DO less, or DO nothing at all.  Neither will sound better than Obama's address.

Is it an accident that the upstart Ernst has to do this job and not one of the party elite?  I think not.