Robust Economy Gives President Obama The Upper Hand In SOTU

Promising really cool social programs is an easy panacea for civil unrest- especially when world economies collapse, because it only increases the deficit, and deficits don't matter anymore. One might argue that even national debt is a necessary evil within a global economy, but addressing national debt is a lot more important to smart politicians than insuring we operate within a balanced budget.  When economic recovery reaches a peak, our impression of deficit spending changes dramatically and thoughts extend towards social investment and away from deficit fears.

Enter tonight's State of the Union address which will establish a credible argument for the need to balance our nations income disparity deficit by implementing "hard to argue with" social investment measures that most republicans are either quietly or vocally in favor of.  These items of middle class security have always been within the presidents vision for America and within the agreeable majority of congress, but the last remaining opposition to his tax code dreams are all of the past accomplishments of the Obama era.

Plainly put, Barack Obama is a victim of his own success.  At this stage in the chess match, Obama opponents are simply risking every piece on the board while trying to keep their king from being captured. The president is not after their king since his economic ideology is in lock step with their own.  Since democrats are blocking Obama's trade plans, the TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership) will be quietly included into an address that will scream of a greater focus on the middle class family.  Trade expansion never finds uninterested GOP ears, but it will not view well on film if Obama and his new republican cohorts pretend to play nice on television.  Cuban normalization efforts are also a preparation for Obama trade dreams as well.

Obama will ultimately get everything that he wants in the end because he is dangling the cash carrot as a lure and republicans can't resist a bite.  What he will not get is the impression that he accomplished it without a fight. In other words, everybody will add stuff to the final bill/s and pretend they had no choice. Tonight's speech is nothing more then a prelude to the TPP hustle that will allow the Keystone XL pipeline to get approved and a couple of other cool social programs like free community college for middle class kids (poor kids already get Pell Grants) or a child tax credit that middle class people with kids can actually take advantage of.(poor people already have multiple child tax credits).


There has always been some false notion that American presidents can pull the strings of the world economy which is typically the key to America's economy.  Presidents can not pull any strings, but nonetheless, good economies are credited to them along with the bad ones. If Obama was indeed the cause of a sputtered recovery than he is singing Al Green tunes in the Oval office for the trend that he is enjoying now. What is the benefit of all of this?  Improved poll numbers for the president and increased power to grab the ear of the public at large.  43% of things spoken during the SOTU address get enacted into law, especially by presidents who've recaptured their moxie.

Congress might fight and kick, but there is always something to be said for the will of the people and of the power of the president to influence that will.  There is also something special about the power of the internet to take your message directly to the public and gauge their response to the details you provide.  In an unprecedented fashion, Barack Obama has basically laid his entire SOTU speech out for public consumption and republican response.  By doing so, he gets to place his winning hand on the table against a republican hand that can only beat him if it offers up a better alternative vision. The move also allows him to snuff out the republican response and prepare his counter in advance as well.

Joni Ernst (R- Iowa)

If the economy keeps blowing up- cheap gas and expanded trade says it will- the trickle down theory must show dividends or redistribution will happen by other means.  Like he did with healthcare, President Obama has stolen the tax code mechanism away from his republican opponents who typically find means of returning wealth to the American people by way of the tax code. Joni Ernst (Iowa), the republican assigned to play the impossible hand of republicans will give the response to tonight's SOTU address.  Ernst is the sacrificial lamb that has been cornered into saying that we must DO more, DO less, or DO nothing at all.  Neither will sound better than Obama's address.

Is it an accident that the upstart Ernst has to do this job and not one of the party elite?  I think not.

Mitt Romney Sounds Like Occupy Wall Street and Reaganomics Is Dead

The death of Reagan republicanism has now begun.

If you are older than forty or simply plugged into politics and economics, you realize the myriad of meanings that one might be trying to imply when using the term "Reagan Republican".  On one hand Reagan was popularized for his Hollywood flair that proved magnetically irresistible to a nation thirsty for a leader who knew how to play the part.  Add to his image the credit for defining republicanism behind the supply-side economic theory- Reaganomics, that spell check now recognizes just fine, and Ronald Reagan's name alone can help you win elections.

Upon deeper investigation, Reaganomics might be worse than Reagan's war on drugs.  In 2011, Adam Martin of The Wire.com reported on studies showing that Reagan's war on drugs had an adverse impact on the price of drugs overall. Studies revealed that Reagan era DEA (Drug Enforcement Agency) efforts included poisoning the ground against future marijuana growth after a drug bust, forcing the transition to pesticide resistant harder drugs that were easier to grow, cheaper to distribute and vastly more profitable. Today, the need to mug grandma is less necessary when 30 minutes of pan handling will suffice. (thewire.com)  Petty crime has been drastically reduced nation wide- but mostly as a result of rampant expansion of  cheap drug use in addition to excessive  incarceration of criminal drug addicts as a result of mandatory sentencing.

No worries.  Studies have long since uncovered the truth about the war on drugs and the war on crime.  While these conservative constructs have soiled the reputation of the republican presidents that started them, Reaganomics has painted the party red as it offered republicans a unified message, even while it remained an untested theory.  In fact, the long standing theory of Reaganomics worked better for republicans in the form of a theory because no one could functionally dispute the darn thing either way. .

Gerrymandering and the great state of Kansas have fixed all of that.

In 2010, Kansas Governor Sam Brownback ran for office and won his job flying under the flag of Reaganomics.  Immediately, Kansas and Brownback had the majority, and the temerity to actually test the theory.

It hasn't worked yet- and even as the nation watches the stock market set new records every month, Kansas has not been able to reap the rewards that Reaganomics  and Brownback promised.

According to a  Washington Post article,

Brownback promised that the efforts would drive economic growth, create jobs and stabilize the Kansas budget. But the state is now reporting a more than $300 million revenue shortfall. The poverty rate increased. The state’s economy expanded a total of 2.3 percent in inflation-adjusted terms over the past two years, half the rate of its four neighbors. And Kansas’s credit rating has been downgraded. (Goldfarb, Zachary A., July 30, 2014, Washington Post) 

In order to curtail the shortfalls, Brownback is pursuing hefty sales taxes on cigarettes and alcohol, taxes that affluent smokers and drinkers will absorb easily, while poor people will suffer mightily. The expanding wealth of the wealthy and the expanding wage gap that feeds their wealth is finally something that even rich folks are concerned about as they are losing sight of their vital consumers while speeding off down America's economic highway.  Even Reaganomics recognizes the value of the consumer.

At some point in recent history, we've also seen a recognition that the trickle down can't work if rich people with stockpiles of water are afraid of drought. When the economy turned, the crisis reaction of corporations was to recession-proof themselves with a secondary damn slashing staff and wages while stashing enough profits to weather future droughts. America's recent storm of riches has flooded the primary damn so much that the water would not only trickle, it would flood were it not for that secondary damn imposed against staff and wages.

The failure of the trickle down theory is a rusty spout.  President Obama's State of the Union address will focus on redistribution efforts because in America, the bulk of wealth passes from family member to family member and never makes it way back into the mainstream.  With every economic downturn, the wealth capacity of the wealthy widens right along with the income disparity that drives it.  Absent the interruption of some redistribution effort, the trend can only exacerbate. Whether redistribution finds its way into the tax code or into federal minimum wage laws- or both- or neither is the only remaining question about economic recovery in America, because Reaganomics is dead even though the eyes appear open.

In an interview on his way to Dodge City — where he would sign legislation creating a “National Day of the Cowboy” — Brownback said he regretted referring to his plans as an experiment. But he defended his tenure, saying it represented a Ronald Reagan-style approach to governance that eventually would rebuild Kansas’s economy after a long slide. (Washington Post) 

Reaganomics may be dead, but the powerful impact of its namesake lives on. In the face of abject failure, the name Ronald Reagan can still save the day.

As for the non-Reagan approach to economics?  States that increased their minimum wage last year actually saw higher reductions in unemployment, a key indicator of economic vitality.  Despite an improved economy on a national level, low wages continue to challenge the feeling of a real recovery although data proves that the recovery is both real and sustainable. Not only is the trickly faucet not dripping, no one even knows how to force a trickle- outside of using progressive approaches towards economic disparity (see; redistribution).

Mitt Romney recently threatened to make his pursuit of the presidency a three-peat by declaring the importance of dealing with international affairs and income disparity as primary reasons that he's considering another run.  Since Mitt now realizes that little Russia is a nuisance compared to the big Soviet Union that was dismantled during the end of the Cold War, then this mega-rich republican's reference towards income disparity is curious for sure. If the trickle down theory officially does not trickle fast enough to drive economic recovery, what can any republican candidate do about income disparity that doesn't constitute redistribution (see; socialism) in the end?

Huh Mitt?  Take your time.  You've got roughly two years to come up with an answer.